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Majority Expect Major Quake; But Few Are Ready For It

POSTED: 3:08 pm PST March 30, 2006
UPDATED: 3:14 pm PST March 30, 2006

Seven in 10 Californians believe a big earthquake will strike the state and affect them, but only 22 percent consider themselves well prepared, a poll conducted for The Associated Press found.

About half of those surveyed said they view local, state and federal government as well prepared or somewhat prepared to provide disaster assistance after a significant earthquake.

"I think people's faith in government is somewhat wishful thinking," said Phil Trounstine, director of the Survey and Policy Research Institute at San Jose State University, which conducted the poll.

"In the aftermath of Hurricane Katrina, it's surprising to find that nearly half of Californians believe that state, local and federal government are prepared for a major disaster," he said. "Let's hope they're right."

The poll found broad confidence in the government's efforts to shore up buildings, bridges, levees and other structures against earthquakes. Eight in 10 respondents characterized those efforts as excellent, good or fair.

Respondents in Los Angeles were almost twice as likely to describe themselves as "well prepared" than those in the San Francisco Bay area. Almost a third of respondents on California's Central Coast said they were well prepared, the highest proportion in the survey. The lowest rates of preparation were in the Bay Area and the Central Valley.

Overall, about six in 10 Californians surveyed said they were well prepared or somewhat prepared for a big earthquake. The figure was about the same for respondents who said they believe a large quake is likely. It was slightly lower for those who say it's unlikely.

Four in 10 described themselves as "not very well prepared" or "not prepared at all."

"Even though the American public, and especially Californians, are very well aware of the potential for a major earthquake, most people have not taken seriously enough the need to get prepared," said Bruce Burtch, spokesman for the American Red Cross Bay Area Chapter.

The new poll figures come seven months after Hurricane Katrina devastated the Gulf Coast, and at a time of heightened earthquake awareness in California. The Great San Francisco Earthquake of 1906 centennial is April 18.

"It points directly to the need for personal preparation," Burtch said.

The Red Cross is trying to train 1 million people this year in disaster response, and urges people living in earthquake zones to keep five days' of supplies such as food, water and prescriptions on hand.

The poll of 701 adult Californians was conducted March 27-29. It had a margin of error of plus or minus 3.7 percent.


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