CONCORD, NH -- MCCAIN, CLINTON WIN IN NEW HAMPSHIRE

Let this be a lesson, that pollsters don't always get it right!

In a stunning comeback tonight Sen. Hillary Clinton, (D-NY) won the New Hampshire Primary, 39% to 37% over Sen. Barack Obama, (R-IL).

At least two prominent polls had Obama up 14 points, just yesterday. Oops!

“Over the past week I listened to New Hampshire, and in the process, I found my own voice," said Clinton at her victory rally Tuesday night in Manchester. She may have been referring, in part, to a widely publicized incident Monday when she choked back tears. Critics saw it as a sign of weakness, while supporters saw her finally showing a human side that many felt she lacked.

She also skipped using the word "change" to describe her campaign, after essentially co-opting the phrase from Obama and former Sen. John Edwards, (D-NC). For Clinton, a long time Washington insider, the idea just didn't ring true. Her husband, the former President, was widely criticized for an attack on the Obama campaign today, calling it a "fairytale."

The next key primaries for Democrats are Nevada on January 19 and South Carolinas on January 26. Clinton said, “We’re going to take what learned in New Hampshire…We are in it for the long haul."

On the Republican side, the comeback was just as dramatic, but not so sudden. A month ago, some polls had McCain down by 20 points. Her surged back to the lead, largely on the populist streak of independence that endeared him to this state, and a GOP primary he won in 2000.

"I am passed the age where I can claim the name kid, but tonight we sure showed them what a comeback is,” McCain said. He beat former Gov. Mitt Romney, (R-MA), 37% to 32%.

The next big test for Republicans is next Tuesday January 15, in Michigan. While McCain won there eight years ago, Romney's father George was a popular three-term Governor there in the 1960's.

“We celebrate one victory tonight and we leave for Michigan tomorrow for another, " said McCain. Romney vowed to fight on. Obama promised the same in his concession speech saying, "We know it's a long road ahead."

Next stop for me is the Nevada Primary on January 19th. Please check in to my blog for daily analysis of the entire campaign: www.markcurtismedia.blogspot.com.

I'll be on "Mornings on 2" with Ross McGowan at 7:40 on Wednesday, 'live' from Manchester. Then tune in to Ronn Owens and me at 9:05 am on KGO-Radio-810AM.

---

DECISION DAY

It's hardly a winter day as polls open in New Hampshire. It's sunny and the forecast high is 57 in Manchester. With competitive races in both parties, and huge voter interest, the great weather may just add to what could be a record voter turnout. As an added incentive, 40% of voters in the Granite State are Independents.

That voting block is crucial. In pre-voting day polling, more Republicans were inclined to vote for former Gov. Mitt Romney (R-MA) than they were for Sen. John McCain, (R-AZ). However, when you add in the Independents, McCain surges into the lead.

Sen. Barack Obama, (D-IL) is also benefiting from independents. At a rally Sunday he asked how many people were still undecided, I saw about 1/3rd of the crowd raise its hands. In other words, many went to see Obama, perhaps to see if he could convince them to vote for him.

Since both races could be very close, the Independents hold the key.

Both leading Democrats held raucous late-night rallies Monday night. After a couple of "flat" performances and turnouts, thousands filed into a hanger near the Manchester Airport, to see Sen. Hillary Clinton, (D-NY). She was joined by her husband Bill and daughter Chelsea. The crowd went wild, in some respects more for the former President, than the current Clinton White House seeker.

When Sen. Clinton talked about the qualities needed in the next President she started to respond, "I know what it will take...." and suddenly a man yelled in the then quiet crowd, "A woman!" The audience erupted in raucous cheers!

As wild as her final rally was, she is still hard pressed to equal the enthusiasm of Barack Obama's rallies. He held the final event of the day, in the gym at Concord High School. Thousands packed the place, and they were anything but quiet.

Obama entered to the blaring sounds of James Brown's "Living in America." The building was shaking! Obama spoke of his success in Iowa, which he was hoping to translate to a New Hampshire victory.

“We can come together as Democrats, Independents and Republicans. Cast aside the same old polarizing politics of the past.” The Illinois Senator noted that young people in Iowa voted in the same percentages as senior citizens. Historically in America, older folks turn out at the highest rate, teens and 20's at the lowest rate. If this new trend continues, Obama could ride the wave to the White House!

Polls close in New Hampshire at 8 Eastern time, 5 Pacific. Look for results shortly thereafter. I will be at the winner's rallies.

Join me with Ross McGowan on "Mornings on Two" tomorrow at 7:40am, and Ronn Owens on KGO Radio-AM 810 at 9am.

For the latest from my political blog, go to www.markcurtismedia.blogspot.com.

---

DAY 5

It was a balmy, 43 degrees in New Hampshire today, as candidates criss-crossed the state looking for last minute support. There are indications upwards of one-third of voters are either undecided, or planning to vote as independents. By New Hampshire law, independents can vote for either party. Polls open at Midnight Eastern Time, in the tiny town of Dixville Notch, where usually about 20 people cast the first ballots.

Reporters such as me, chased the candidates with the same flurry they pressed for votes!

First stop for me today, a speech by former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney, (R-MA). He made a noon-time luncheon address at the Nashua Rotary Club.

Romney stressed his career as a successful businessman (which made him a multi-millionaire); his successful running of the Salt Lake City Winter Olympics, and his single term as Governor of a heavily Democratic state.

Rotarians greeted him with the "Hello Song," a Rotary tradition, and a nice slice of political Americana.

Like so many candidates, he views this race as a referendum for "change" in U.S. politics. It has become almost a "mantra" of every campaign after Sen. Barrack Obama (D-IL) and former Gov. Mike Huckabee (R-AR) rode the change bronco to victory in Iowa.

"If ever there time we needed change in Washington, DC it's now. Washington is broke," Romney said. The former Olympic leader promised a gold rush of tax cuts if elected, and criticized rival Sen. John McCain, (R-AZ), as being only 'one-of-two' Senators to vote against President Bush's tax cuts.

Later in Concord, on the steps of the State Capitol building, Sen. McCain responded that his decades in public service, from the U.S. Navy to the Senate, were an asset, not a liability.

"I can lead this nation in difficult times," said McCain, who spent five years as a Prisoner of War in Vietnam. McCain said recent international problems including the Bhutto assassination in Pakistan, and the clash with the Iranian military on Sunday as prime examples. "I know how to handle the Iranians," he said, touting his military and foriegn affairs background.

Polls put McCain and Romney in a near dead-heat. CNN has McCain 32%, Romney 26%, while Fox News Channel has today's poll at McCain 34% Romney 27%. The Rassmussen Poll was even tighter, with McCain at 32% and Romney breathing down his neck like the hot Arizona sun, at 31%.

Wow, Arizona sounds great after this week in Iowa and New Hampshire!

I'll be covering the final rallies for Sen. Hillary Clinton, (D-NY) and Sen. Barack Obama, (D-IL) tonight, so watch for updates!

I'll be joining Ross McGowan, 'live' from Manchester on Mornings on Two Tuesday and Wednesday at 7:40 am. The I will join Ronn Owens on KGO-AM 810 radio at 9am, Tuesday and Wednesday as well.

Check out my NEW political blog at www.markcurtismedia.blogspot.com

---

DAY 4

I feel like the last person in Iowa. All the candidates are gone, and most of the media is on its way to New Hampshire. I follow on Saturday.

Here are some departing thoughts.

-Iowa is 95% white, yet voted strongly (38%) in favor of a Black male.

-Women vote in greater numbers than men, and many thought that favored Hillary Clinton. Instead, Barack Obama won the female vote.

-So Obama transcends racial and gender stereotypes. What's the appeal? Perhaps it’s a positive message of unity and hope. Perhaps he can still claim to be a Washington, DC "outsider" with only two years in the Senate. And perhaps his "middle class, Midwest roots" played well here in the Midwest. We'll see what New Hampshirites say!

-This is NOT over, on either side. If McCain and Clinton win in New Hampshire, then Thompson and Edwards win in South Carolina, we may have a 3-way free-for-all in both parties, heading for the national "showdown" on Super Tuesday, February 5th, which includes California.

-Are you voting absentee in California? The ballots are being mailed today. Will you be swayed by the first results in Iowa and New Hampshire? California voting officials estimate 30% of state voters will vote early, by absentee. Wow!

-Will Huckabee get an "Iowa Bounce?" Last I saw he had 5% of the New Hampshire GOP vote, running 5th among the GOP field. Let's see if he gains momentum and traction, over the next 4 days.

-McCain won New Hampshire in 2000, aboard a bus called "the Straight Talk Express!" Can he repeat? He has surged 10 points in the polls!

-1992 Bill Cinton dubbed himself "the comeback kid" after a weak start in Iowa, and a strong 2nd in the "Granite State." Can he help Hillary do the same? Tune in Tuesday and find out!

I will be on KGO-AM 810 Radio with Ronn Owens next week Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday from New Hampshire at 9:05. Watch for me 'live' with Ross McGowan, on "Mornings on Two" Tuesday and Wednesday at 7:40, as we assess the winners and losers.

Any comments? Please visit my political blog at www.markcurtismedia.blogspot.com

See you from New Hampshire!

MARK CURTIS

__________________________

DAY 3 OK, so Mike Huckabee and Barack Obama won the Iowa Caucuses. But who were the real winners and losers?

WINNERS:

• 1.) Hope and Optimism: While Huckabee and Obama are at opposite ends of the political spectrum, some of the themes strike a similar chord. Last night in his victory speech, Obama said, "We are choosing hope over fear. We are choosing unity over division." Huckabee said, "It's not about who raises the most money. It's about raising the most hopes and aspirations." People like a positive message!
• 2.) Political spouses. At the Edwards rally, people cheer for Elizabeth more than John. At Clinton events, people want to shake Bill's hand more than Hillary. At Obama events, when Baracak calls Michelle, "the love of my life" he really sounds sincere. Crowrds love it! Being a political spouse is tough work...so its nice to see these folks get some recognition.
• 3.) Celebrity endorsements work....."sometimes" but not always. Oprah helped Obama, and Chuck Norris gave some "chops" to Huckabee's campaign...or was it Mrs. Norris, who stood behind Huckabee, and was the "buzz" of the CNN newsroom where I was working!

LOSERS:

• 1.) Big Money. Mitt Romney spent $7.5 million here, but lost to Huckabee, who spent only half a million.
• 2.) Negative Ads: The only real attack ads came from Romney, attacking Huckabee. Romney got trounced. Memo to all candidates. Iowans HATE negative ads. Just ask Howard Dean and Dick Gephrardt from 2004. They led in the polls, then launched a vicious attack on each other and lost badly. As Howard Dean said, "YEEEEEEEEEEEEEAAAAAAHHHHHHHHHHH!
• 3.) "Old material!" Hillary Clinton's speeches seem "old and tired," a rehash the stuff we have heard from the Clinton's over 16 years. Now that is NOT a slam on their policies, or them personally. But the speeches really need some new ideas, some energy and some inspiration. They just fell flat!

More to come from Iowa, then on to New Hampshire on Saturday!

---

__________________________

DAY 2

"So What's a Caucus?"

So What's a Caucus? It's really TWO answers!

For Republicans, this is really just another primary. GOP voters cast their secret ballot, and whoever get the most votes...is the winner. National convention delegates, are divided up proportionally.

For Democrats, its fairly complicated. People will gather in fire stations, libraries, school gyms, etc. They will divide up by candidates they support. If that candidate does not have 15% of the crowd, they are done! For example, if 100 people attend a precinct caucus, candidate Chris Dodd needs 15 people to stay viable. If he doesn't, he's out...and his delegates are free to vote for anyone else.

This is crucial, because it's a way to get additional votes. Sen Barrack Obama is saying, "Please consider me for your second choice, if I am not your first choice!"

And Rep. Dennis Kucinich has told supporters, to back Obama if Kucinich does not have 15%.

So it's almost like "rank choice" voting in San Francisco! Those "second choice" votes, could put someone "over the top" in a tight race, and right now polls show Sens. Clinton, Obama, and former Sen. Edwards, deadlocked in a 3-way race!

Turnout is crucial tonight, voting begins at 7pm in Iowa. Skies are sunny, with a high temperature of 30 degrees today. Brisk, but no rain or snow!

It's estimated that 40% of voters may be "independents"....so this is wide open in both parties!

Get ready for an Iowa free-for-all!

MARK CURTIS

__________________________

DAY 1

Greetings from Des Moines! It's 15 degrees. I have no gloves, hat or scarf! You'd think a kid who grew up in Wisconsin would know better!

Anyway, its the day before the Caucuses and Iowa is all a buzz over politics!

First stop, a place called "Coffee and Comics" a small eclectic coffee show near the airport. A non-Starbucks. A little neighborhood joint you might find in the Haight. In any case, the sign on the door says they offer "a cup o' Kryptonite!" The coffee is good, and the comic book collection cool. In case I miss the Bay Area too much, there is a wine store next door, offering Napa Valley's finest.

"Coffee and Comics" is definately unqiue. The owner Matt, is backing Democrat Chris Dodd for President. His friend is backing rebel Republican Ron Paul. They've even hosted Chris Dodd in the coffee shop for a rally. I tell them they must be two of the "lonliest guys in Iowa." They laugh and agree! Still they are backing their candidates on principle, instead of some crazy "poll" which is admirable.

Remember "Boy George and Culture Club?" Their song "Church of the Poison Mind" is playing on the radio. It followed "Rockin' America" by...a band I forgot. In any case, I make no editorial here. THEY pick the music, not me! Anyway, it must be satellite radio, since there are NO political ads, unlike my car radio which is bombarding me with last minute candidate pleas.

Speaking or music, John "Cougar" Mellencamp is playing at a John Edwards rally tonight, and I get to go...free! Mellencamp hails from Indiana...so his Midwest roots "might" help Edwards, though celebrity endorsements rarely mean much at the polls. We'll see!

I'll check back later...time to find a store for those hats, mittens and scarf! BBBBBBBBrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr!

MARK CURTIS