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UC Study Sounds Alarm For Redwoods Future

California’s unique wild land forests, filled with Redwood trees, Blue Oaks and native plants not found anywhere else, are in serious jeopardy from rapid climate warning, according to University of California scientists.

Professor David Ackerly, UC Berkeley biology professor and an author of the new study, said that if global warming goes unabated native California plants will be threatened with extinction.

“I think we can say with certainty we will see extinction in the next century due to climate change,” Ackerly warned. “Which species will disappear? We don't know yet.”

Ackerly said temperatures may rise 10 times faster than plants can adapt, reducing changes some species can survive.

“There is very little chance for plants to establish new populations and to migrate to keep up with these dramatic changes,” the UC researcher said of such rapidly changing conditions.

According to NASA, surface temperatures rose almost 1 1/2 degrees Fahrenheit in the past century, but much of that was in the past 50 years. Eleven of the 12 years ending in 2006 are the warmest since accurate record-keeping began in 1850.

Researchers from the University of California, Berkeley, Duke University and other institutions released maps Tuesday showing how global warming could affect 2,300 plant species, including live oak, blue oak, scrub oak, California bay laurel and whiteleaf manzanita.

The study found that up to 66 percent of plants would disappear from 80 percent or more of their present ranges if greenhouse gas emissions continue to grow at their current rate. There would be much less impact if emissions drop to below 1990 levels by the end of the century, the study said.

The foothills of the northern Sierra Nevada would lose the most species, while the Central Coast from Big Sur to Mendocino County would remain rich in plant life, according to the study.

Environmental scientist Scott Laurie has studied climate change for five years, concluding that burning fossil fuels is bankrupting California’s environmental treasures.

“To think that my grandchildren might not see these same plants in these same hills where I grew up, that's a sobering thought, “Laurie said.

Particularly, vulnerable are California’s native wildflowers. Many are annual species that experts say likely will vanish with rapid climate change.

“Do we want to wait fifty years to see what these effects will be or do we want to get ahead of it now while we still have a chance,” Ackerly said.

Researchers say these predictions, though scientifically sound, are not set in stone, by reducing greenhouse gas emissions, we may help reduce the severity of these changes.

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