How will the next president impact the economy?
Despite 72 straight months of job growth, the hiring machine still has millions of hires to go.
At a job fair on Tuesday at San Francisco’s Hotel Nikko, we asked an economic historian what impact the winner of the presidential election might have on the economy.
Nine employers were offering jobs at a LiveHire event where recruiters far outnumbered job seekers. Since the recession ended, six years ago, America has gained 13.7 million jobs. Nonetheless, there are still 5.5 million jobs available; a good indicator of economic growth ahead.
"That is great news to hear. Anything coming out that's positive for employment is a good deal for me," says job seeker Thalia Edith Ohene-Nyako.
ADT is seeking to fill five Bay Area jobs selling systems; most often to people who have been burglarized. "We are definitely getting some people who are coming in and potentially that we are looking to go ahead with the second interview and actually have them coming aboard," says Robert Young an ADT Security Systems recruiter.
These days, employers have lots of jobs; more jobs than people there are to take them. But what happens after the election?
Brad DeLong is a professor of economic history at UC Berkeley's Department of Economics.
"Since 1928, this is eras in which Democrats have been Presidents, have seen the economy do much, much better that eras in which Republicans have been Presidents,” says Professor DeLong.
Exceptions? DeLong says Reagan's economy did well. Carter's economy was marred by explosive inflation.
Other than that, it's been predictable. "It's puzzling that there's such a strong pattern. There is a very strong pattern. Statisticians, who test for whether it was real, overwhelmingly conclude that it's very unlikely to be just luck. The problem is: there seems to be no single cause we can point to," says Professor DeLong.
The majority opinion of economists is that the recovery is complete and— going forward, we'll see more normal growth patterns. A minority of economist say the recovery is not complete and we should expect more accelerated growth. Few are predicting any immediate recession or collapse. "It's nice to know that there might be a longer employment session instead of a recession. I think that's the last thing we need," says job seeker Ohene-Nyako.
The two things that could wreak havoc. One is too many and too much interest rate hikes from the Federal Reserve. The other, a major disruption in financial markets such the Savings & Loan crisis, the dot.com crash and worthless mortgage backed securities that cause our last massive recession.