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Which Hotel Projects Are Good Bets?

S&P Rates Chances Ideas Will Become Reality

It seems as if every other day there's some announcement about the newest, latest and greatest hotel/condo/casino project planned for Las Vegas. And on the days in between, there's some sort of announcement about one of them being canceled, like last week's not-so-shocker of a press release on the failure of the $3 billion Las Ramblas.

So if you were a gambling type -- and since you're reading a column about Las Vegas, you probably are -- which projects should you lay your money on, and which ones should you walk away from? Standard and Poors would like to tell you.

According to its Web site, Standard and Poors is the "world's foremost provider of independent credit ratings, indices, risk evaluation, investment research, data, and valuations." OK. I don't even have a savings account, so what does that mean? Basically it watches companies and tries to figure out which are doing well and which aren't so you know where to invest your money.

Oh, and it kind of runs the stock market, in a way. But the only thing you really need to know is that it knows a lot about business, and since the gaming industry is a multi-billion-dollar one, it pays attention to it.

Standard & Poors released a study on the future of Las Vegas, and it examined the planned hotel/casino projects to determine which were sure things and which were risky wagers. Here are the ones the company think you can place safe bets on:

Palazzo -- The 3,025 room "addition" to the Venetian is already deeply into the construction phase, with a planned 2007 opening, so this one wasn't exactly crystal-ball gazing. Still, when you're talking about a $1.8 billion, 53-story hotel, anything can happen. They say it will.

Encore -- Steve Wynn is not a guy who holds groundbreakings without following through, so his $1.7 billion, 2,000-plus-room sequel to Wynn Las Vegas falls into the "sure thing" category according to S&P. I agree with them.

Project CityCenter -- The MGM Mirage folks are ponying up $7 billion for the largest privately funded construction project ever, including nearly 8,000 hotel and condo units, plus retail, casino, entertainment and more. The construction on this one has already started with the demolition of the Boardwalk. and S&P believes this one is a done deal for 2010.

Echelon Place -- Boyd Gaming's $4 billion Stardust replacement is another one to take to the bank, according to S&P. With more than 5,000 rooms in several hotels, plus a casino, entertainment, and convention facilities, it should come online in 2010 as well.

On the "risky" side of things (they call it "uncertain," but you get the point) S&P cites the Cosmopolitan, a $2 billion complex with a Hyatt hotel planned for just south of Bellagio; the Fountainbleau, a 4,000-room Miami-themed resort conceived by former Mandalay Resorts Group officials for the land across the street from Circus Circus; and the W Hotel and Residences, scheduled for the Harmon Avenue corridor between Planet Hollywood and the Hard Rock.

The S&P report left them off, but I would add the proposed Maxim magazine hotel and the Frontier replacement Montreux to the uncertain column.

The other thing the study looked at was whether there was any end in site to the spiraling cost of everything in Las Vegas, but specifically room rates. The short answer is "no." Each of the major projects listed above will most likely have room rates well above $200 a night on average, with a few them regularly running over $300.

About the only thing that could reverse the trend would be some sort of major economic downturn, and that would probably only put it on pause.

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