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Posted: 10:33 p.m. Sunday, Aug. 14, 2011
By Jamie Dupree
Whether you think the Iowa Straw Poll is an important event or a lot of political fluff, it did demonstrate the relative state of the race for the White House on the Republican side, especially with the withdrawal of Tim Pawlenty.
The victory of Michele Bachmann could make her the favorite to win the Iowa Caucuses, though the entry of Texas Gov. Rick Perry may change that political calculus in coming months.
Ron Paul's close second place finish again shows the strength of his Iowa supporters, but many Republicans in Washington, D.C. don't see his candidacy ending with him winning the GOP nomination.
Still, Paul definitely joins Bachmann in the top tier of GOP candidates, along with frontrunner Mitt Romney - plus for now - Gov. Perry.
Perry started with a big flourish this weekend, with events in South Carolina, Iowa and New Hampshire.
Will Perry turn out to be a successful candidate or a flash in the pan? Even GOP lawmakers in the Congress that I heard from over the weekend weren't too sure.
"Will be interesting to see if he can withstand scrutiny every candidate goes through," one Republican told me, describing Perry as an "unknown quantity."
"He seems like a strong candidate that has the charisma the others lack," said another Republican in Congress.
But I did find one GOP Congressman who is ready to endorse Perry when the time comes.
"I have not announced," this veteran lawmaker told me, but "I will be on his team."
The quick conventional wisdom is that Perry's future will be known in short order, especially with a pair of GOP debates in Florida next month.
If there was a surprise from the Iowa Straw Poll, it was the fourth place finish of Rick Santorum, who led all the second tier candidates like Herman Cain, Newt Gingrich and Jon Huntsman.
Santorum, who has been given little chance of winning by party insiders, said it showed his hard work on the ground in Iowa is paying off, while Cain downplayed the results.
"I have said from the beginning that I would not buy a straw poll victory," Cain said in a statement released after the vote.
But for Cain and Gingrich, the results did little to give them any kind of momentum, and it illustrated what some see as a weakness in terms their of on-the-ground organization in Iowa and New Hampshire.
Perry's entry into the race is also another hurdle for Cain, who saw his growth stunted by Bachmann's recent success as well.
It might not seem like it, but this race is quickly moving into a new and important phase, because there is really is not much time left until the Iowa Caucuses and New Hampshire Primary.
Finally, for those who missed it, here is the final breakdown for the Iowa Straw Poll:
1. Congresswoman Michele Bachmann (4823, 28.55%)
2. Congressman Ron Paul (4671, 27.65%)
3. Governor Tim Pawlenty (2293, 13.57%)
4. Senator Rick Santorum (1657, 9.81%)
5. Herman Cain(1456, 8.62%)
6. Governor Rick Perry (718, 3.62%) write-in
7. Governor Mitt Romney (567, 3.36%)
8. Speaker Newt Gingrich (385, 2.28%)
9. Governor Jon Huntsman (69, 0.41%)
10. Congressman Thad McCotter (35, 0.21%)
Jamie Dupree is the Radio News Director of the Washington Bureau of the Cox Media Group and writes the Washington Insider blog.
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