Latest El Nino News | KTVU FOX 2 San Francisco

El Niño expected to strengthen, what it could mean for the Bay Area

Thu, 09 Jul 2026 09:03:39 -0700

A newly released monthly report from NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center shows that El Niño is not only here, but it’s expected to continue strengthening through the fall and winter months.

Scientists say there’s growing confidence this could become one of the stronger El Niño events in recent decades, although exactly how it impacts California remains uncertain.

What is El Niño?

So…what exactly is El Niño?

Think of the Pacific Ocean as Earth’s thermostat.

During an El Niño, water along the equator in the eastern and central Pacific becomes warmer than normal. That extra heat changes the position of the jet stream, influencing storm tracks across North America.

What does that mean for the Bay Area?

For those in Northern California, El Niño tilts the odds toward a wetter-than-average winter.

That doesn’t mean it will rain every day or that every storm will be stronger, but historically, El Niño years often bring more Pacific storms to California.

That can mean:

More opportunities for beneficial rainfall.
A healthier Sierra snowpack that supplies much of California’s water.
An increased risk of flooding during stronger atmospheric river events.
Higher surf, beach erosion, and occasional coastal flooding during powerful winter storms and king tides.

But there’s an important catch.

Even a strong El Niño is not a guarantee of a wet winter in the Bay Area. Every El Niño has its own personality.

Some produce soaking storms across Northern California, while others focus the heaviest rain farther south. Local weather will still depend on individual storm systems as they develop over the coming months.

The bottom line is that the latest NOAA outlook suggests the Pacific Ocean is continuing to warm, increasing the likelihood of a significant El Niño through the upcoming winter season.

It’s still too early to predict exactly how much rain the Bay Area will receive, but this is another signal that Californians should be paying close attention as we head toward our rainy season.

El Niño explainer: Some forecast models suggest possible record-setting event

Thu, 14 May 2026 06:52:49 -0700

Super El Niño?

"Super" is not an official classification on the intensity scale.

However, some of the forecast models, including those from the Climate Prediction Center, have been suggesting that the pending El Niño event, for the winter of 2026-2027, could approach the higher extreme of the very strong range. If this were to happen, it could be a record-setting event and may drastically affect the winter storm patterns.

What is El Niño?

El Niño is a recurring natural climate pattern that has its origins in the Pacific Ocean. While there are always changing patterns in the offshore waters adjacent to the Bay Area, the region that forecasters examine is over 3,000 miles away in the Equatorial Pacific.

This region is called Enso 3.4. This is the defined area where researchers monitor sea surface temperatures. If warmer than normal water temperatures are observed, El Niño conditions are present.

What determines the strength of El Niño?

A weak El Niño or a strong El Niño? The magnitude of the warming dictates the strength.

The intensity scale runs from weak to moderate to strong to very strong.

The extremes

A weak El Niño is linked to slightly warmer than average water temperatures starting at .5 degrees Celsius. A pattern with water temperatures running at least 2 degrees above normal is labeled as a very strong event. This has occurred four times since 1950.

How does El Niño affect the storm track?

A strong El Niño has the potential to shift the winter storm track boosting the odds for an active winter for parts of the United States. In California, there is a higher chance of above normal rainfall for the southern half of the state.

What would El Niño this summer mean for California's winter?

Thu, 09 Apr 2026 15:21:54 -0700

The El Niño Watch for the upcoming winter continues.

On Thursday, the Climate Prediction Center, a division of NOAA, published an update regarding a developing El Niño in the Equatorial Pacific. The latest update states a reversal will soon be taking place.

Cooler than normal water temperatures in the Equatorial Pacific (La Niña) are starting to transition to warmer than normal water temperatures (El Niño).

Chance of El Niño in 2026

Chance of El Niño developing this summer: 61%
Chance of a strong El Niño: 25%

El Niño climatology

According to GoldenGate Weather Services, there have been 27 El Niños in the past. Of those 27, there have only been four "Very Strong" El Niño events (1982-1983, 1991-1992, 1997-1998, and 2015-2016).

During the "Very Strong" Events, rainfall in the San Francisco Bay Area was 141% of normal.

What is an El Niño?

El Niño is the warming of the sea surface temperatures thousands of miles away from the Bay Area in the Equatorial Pacific.

The warmer than average temperatures can influence the storm track during the winter months.

Generally, some areas in the northern US may receive less precipitation.

Areas to the south may actually be in the zone for higher than normal precipitation.

What could El Niño mean for winter in California?

There are several circulations that could affect storm tracks during the winter. El Niño is just one of the factors. Leaning on climatology, there is a higher chance of above normal rainfall across California when El Niño conditions are present.

The chances of higher than normal rainfall is focused in the southern half of the state during a general El Niño winter.

The next El Niño diagnostics discussion will be issued on May 14.