This browser does not support the Video element.
Morning fog, cooler
Today will start off foggy and then be cooler in the high 50s.
OAKLAND, Calif. - After a wet and stormy start to winter, the Bay Area has now gone 15 consecutive days without measurable rainfall, giving us a stretch of dry, mild January weather.
While there is a chance of rain returning Wednesday, this dry spell is a reminder of how quickly conditions can change in California, even during a season officially labeled "drought-free."
Just earlier this month, the U.S. Drought Monitor declared 100% of California free of drought for the first time in 25 years, thanks to multiple strong storm systems that significantly boosted reservoir levels and snowpack .
But meteorologists and water experts caution that "drought-free" does not mean water risk-free.
California drought: These parts of state still 'abnormally dry' despite rains
The recent heavy rains across California have not ended concerns about a possible water shortage.
Why 15 dry days still matter
Big picture view:
January is typically part of California’s wet season, when we rely on repeated storm systems to refill reservoirs and build mountain snowpack. A two-week dry stretch during this critical time shows just how volatile and unpredictable our weather patterns can be.
In fact, climatologists warn that California’s climate is becoming increasingly extreme, swinging rapidly between very wet and very dry periods, sometimes within the same season. Even in years with strong rainfall totals, extended dry gaps can quickly shift soil moisture, vegetation health, and wildfire risk.
Not the whole story
California's water supply gets a grade of A+ due to Sierra snowpack
Average performance usually earns a grade of C, but for the state water supply, it's an A plus because we are slightly above average with a historical snowpack for the Sierra and Trinity Mountain ranges.
While drought maps show California in good shape overall, they don’t reflect the full complexity of our water system.
A significant portion of Northern California’s rainfall and snowmelt, including water captured in Bay Area and Sierra reservoirs, is exported south through the State Water Project and Central Valley Project, supplying millions of people in Southern California and agricultural regions statewide.
This means local rainfall doesn’t stay local. Even when Northern California enjoys a wet winter, water deliveries to other parts of the state quickly draw from those supplies.
So while our reservoirs may look healthy today, statewide demand, especially from Southern California, keeps water managers in constant balancing mode.
How fast conditions can flip
California is no stranger to dramatic weather reversals.
Just three years ago, atmospheric river storms caused historic flooding across large parts of the state, while recent winters brought snowpack and rainfall totals well above average. Yet extended dry spells and multi-year droughts can rebuild quickly, especially when storm tracks shift north or weaken.
Experts emphasize, one wet season does not erase long-term water vulnerability, especially as climate change drives more intense drought-and-deluge cycles.
Chance of rain
What's next:
Forecast models show a chance of rain returning Wednesday, which could help break this dry streak. However, confidence remains moderate and KTVU meteorologists will be watching closely to see if this system strengthens or fades.
Meanwhile, this 15-day dry run serves as a timely reminder: California’s water picture can change rapidly, in either direction.
Even during our wettest years, conservation, smart water management and long-term planning remain essential.