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Californias slow vote count draws scrutiny — heres why it takes longer than other states
Donna Crane, a political science professor at San Jose State University, says it is looking more likely than not that the general election will be a Democrat versus Republican matchup.
OAKLAND, Calif. - The California primary was just days ago, but vote totals are still coming in — and some key races are getting tighter.
In the race for governor, Health and Human Services Secretary Xavier Becerra is projected to advance to the November general election with 27% of the vote counted so far.
Republican Steve Hilton sits in second place with 26%, and Democrat Tom Steyer is in third with 21%. Roughly 320,000 votes currently separate Hilton and Steyer, with an estimated three million ballots still left to count.
What's in store for November
What they're saying:
Donna Crane, a political science professor at San Jose State University, says it is looking more likely than not that the general election will be a Democrat versus Republican matchup.
"There are still a lot of ballots left to count and a number of them are coming from urban areas which tend to skew Democratic," Crane said. "I think it's looking like Steyer is just a little bit too far on the outside to be able to pick up that difference."
If it does come down to Becerra versus Hilton in November, Crane says the outcome may be all but certain.
"Unless there's some incredible plot twist, it looks like it's Becerra's race to lose going into the general," she said.
President Trump and members of his administration have in recent days criticized California elections, claiming without evidence that the slow count is a sign of fraud. Crane says there are straightforward explanations for why California takes longer than other states.
"Californians rely unusually heavily on vote by mail. So we just get a greater proportion of our votes coming in by mail than in person than other states do. So it's not really fair to compare us to other states in that respect," she said.
Crane also pointed to late strategic voting by Democrats wary of a two-Republican general election, as well as uneven investment in counting equipment across counties.
"Some counties might just not buy the machines that they need because they decide not to invest that taxpayer money, but it means their results are going to come in a little late and the whole state results lag as a result of that," she said.
Thoughts on the "jungle primary"
Local perspective:
On the topic of California's top-two primary system — sometimes called the jungle primary — Crane says her San Jose State students are ambivalent.
They like the concept of maximum voter choice, but bristle at the idea of one party being shut out of the general election entirely.
"They take an outcomes-based approach to the different kinds of voting systems," Crane said. "They're pretty interested in ranked choice also."
There is now renewed discussion among state lawmakers about potentially returning to a closed party primary system, in which voters must be registered members of a party to participate in that party's primary. Crane says the near-miss of an all-Republican governor's race has rattled some Democrats.
"A lot of Democrats have had what I've been describing as a near-death experience," she said. "There's a new sense of awareness among Democrats about what can happen as a result of our jungle primary system."
Still, Crane says California voters have a deep tradition of direct democracy and may be resistant to handing more power back to party leadership.
"You're not searching for an ideal system, you're searching for a system that is sort of the least bad of the other options," she said.
The Source: Interview with Donna Crane, a political science professor at San Jose State University