UC Berkeley poll: Becerra leads, Hilton 2nd, Steyer 3rd

SACRAMENTO, Calif. - With just days left for California voters to cast their ballots in the primary election, a newly released poll offers a fresh glimpse into the race for the state's next governor. The June 2 election will not only decide a number of local races and measures, but will also determine which top two candidates advance to the general election in November.

A new poll from UC Berkeley's Institute of Governmental Studies, which surveyed likely voters between May 19 and May 24, shows Democrat Xavier Becerra holding a clear lead with 25% support. Republican Steve Hilton follows closely behind with 21%, while Tom Steyer sits in third with 19%.

The findings show a shift from a Public Policy Institute poll released earlier this week, which recorded the same three candidates in the lead but placed Steyer lower at 15%. Political analysts note that the UC Berkeley IGS poll is more recent, capturing voter sentiment from within the past 10 days.

Political scientists are pointing to the significant momentum Becerra's campaign has generated over recent weeks. On March 5, Becerra was polling at just 5%.

"It wasn't a coordinated push, but there was positive comments from leading Democrats about Becerra," said Jason McDaniel, a political science professor at San Francisco State University. McDaniel added that candidate Katie Porter has been unable to recover, and voters remain skeptical of Steyer despite his campaign efforts.

In addition to candidate preferences, the poll tracked the primary concerns of California voters. The high cost of living remains a dominant issue, with 74% of those surveyed stating it is "very important" to them. In contrast, only 2% of respondents answered that the issue was "not important at all."

As the weekend approaches, overall turnout among registered Democrats remains sluggish. As of Thursday, only 11% of registered Democrats had returned their mail-in ballots. By comparison, 14% of registered Democrats had already voted by this same point during the 2022 primary election.