Iran war, redistricting, and California voter apathy: What's at stake before the midterms

OAKLAND, Calif. - With the midterm elections just months away, a confluence of crises — a stalled war with Iran, a landmark Supreme Court ruling on voting rights, and an uninspiring California governor's race — is setting up what one political historian calls a consequential political moment for Republicans.

Nolan Higdon, a political history lecturer at UC Santa Cruz, joined KTVU to break down the landscape.

The war with Iran

Little public support:

A new poll shows the U.S. war with Iran is now as unpopular as the Vietnam War was in its final, deeply divisive years. 

But unlike Vietnam, Higdon says, this conflict never had a honeymoon period.

"The public really was never sold on this war," he said. "They don't know if they're fighting to stop a nuclear program, open the straits, or who they're serving."

President Trump is reviewing a new Iranian proposal to restart peace talks but told reporters he believes it will likely be unacceptable. 

Iran's military leaders, meanwhile, say the U.S. window to negotiate on its own terms has narrowed. Trump has said he plans to maintain a Navy blockade of Iran's ports until Iran makes nuclear concessions and reopens the Strait of Hormuz to all shipping.

Dig deeper:

A congressional deadline requiring the administration to seek approval to extend the war came and went without action. 

Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth argued the deadline did not apply because the conflict is technically on pause.

Higdon says the administration's lack of urgency reflects a hard reality: there is no quick exit on American terms.

"Iran has shown some power in the Middle East, particularly shutting down the strait," he said. "This is really spun out of control, and the United States can't unilaterally decide whether or not this war continues."

The effects at home

Gas prices soar:

Gulf states have begun to resist alignment with U.S. policy in the region, further complicating the picture. 

Rising gas prices at home are being blamed on the conflict, leaving Republicans with little positive to point to heading into November.

"Politically, this is really a disaster," Higdon said. "There's no kind of positive about this war that Republicans can sell the public on."

The political landscape shifted further this week with a Supreme Court ruling declaring minority-majority districts unconstitutional as a form of gerrymandering.

Louisiana, Alabama, and Florida moved quickly to redistrict in the ruling's wake, with Tennessee and Georgia also considering similar action.

Higdon says Republicans may be overplaying their hand. Gerrymandering relies on historical voting patterns, he notes, and the political environment has shifted considerably since 2024.

"Republicans are playing a really dangerous game here," he said. "It really depends on what the voters do in these new districts."

In the Golden State:

Closer to home, California's governor's race is generating its own kind of concern — not anger or enthusiasm, but apathy. 

Early voting begins this week, and polls suggest roughly 25% of expected voters remain undecided independents. 

The current top tier includes Tom Steyer, former Attorney General Javier Becerra, and conservative commentator Steve Hilton, with Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco on the outside looking in.

Higdon said he has been surprised by two candidates in particular. 

Steyer has consolidated support from progressive organizations, including groups that grew out of the Bernie Sanders movement — an unlikely coalition for a billionaire. And Becerra has surged in polls and ad spending, especially since Rep. Eric Swalwell exited the race.

"It really illustrates that the state is kind of divided in how it sees its future," Higdon said, "not only amongst which party, but also who within each party."

With independents potentially deciding who advances to the general election, Higdon says the outcome remains genuinely uncertain — in California, and nationally.