Is the snow pack lost for the year?

SACRAMENTO, Calif. - The increasingly sparse snow pack is getting whacked by what can only be described as an unseasonable mountain heat wave. The question is, can we catch it before it runs to the sea?

Another dry spell

It's possible, not probable, that we may be entering another dry spell.  We've had three back-to-back water years, followed by this one which should end up a bit under average. 

California has not seen that chain in four decades. 

After the early March snow survey, the Department of Water Resources said: "The prospect of catching up to average a month from now on April 1st, which is when we typically see our peak snow pack, is looking pretty grim," said David Rizzardo, the DWR’s Hydrology Chief. 

"Our peak snow pack has quite possibly occurred," said Mike Anderson, the California State Climatologist.

And that was before this mid-March heat wave. "The runoff we see today is going to be difficult to store because there is very little space in our current reservoirs to store it," said Mike Wade of The California Farmwater Coalition. 

How are the reservoirs looking? 

Example, the Marin Municipal Water District's seven reservoirs are 99.7% full, almost 11% more than the long-term average. Even if the water district's reservoirs get no more rain, it's a good beginning level for summer.

But, for California's ‘big six’ mega reservoirs, the story is quite different because much of the Bay Area and the state depend on them. 

Combined, those massive reservoirs are 86% full right now, which is 120% of their average levels on this day of the year. Though there is space for a lot more water, most of that is off limits to this plentiful heat wave runoff.

Why? That’s because space is needed to handle a succession of atmospheric rivers, which still may come. 

"They have to be very careful to have that storage space available and I think that's the case with a lot of reservoirs around the state," said Wade.

That makes it less likely that dams are not overwhelmed as the Oroville dam was, back in February 2017. That caused widespread fear of collapse and a massive just-in-case evacuation.

But, East Bay MUD says it will use all the space it's legally allowed. 

"Right now, East Bay MUD's reservoir storage is 83% full and so, we'll be able to capture whatever we can this coming week. We have a few years’ worth of storage in our reservoirs, but every year that passes when we don't fill completely definitely adds up," said Andrea Pook, East Bay Municipal Utility District Public Affairs Officer.

So, for California's water, the April Fools' Day snow pack measure will be a matter of no fooling around.