UC Santa Cruz analyst weighs in on extended war with Iran; Swalwell criminal probe

Analyst weighs in on of effects of extended war with Iran; Swalwell criminal probe

Nolan Higdon, a political history professor at UC Santa Cruz, joins KTVU to discuss the war with Iran as Trump orders blockade. He also weighs in on a criminal investigation by the Manhattan District Attorneys office into East Bay Congressman Eric Swalwell following allegations of sexual assault.

OAKLAND, Calif. - The U.S. war with Iran appears to be entering a more aggressive phase following President Donald Trump’s order for a naval blockade in the Strait of Hormuz, according to UC Santa Cruz political history professor Nolan Higdon.

The conflict with Iran

Problems abroad:

Higdon told KTVU that the administration’s shifting justifications – ranging from dismantling nuclear programs to regime change – have left the American public without a clear understanding of the conflict's ultimate goal. 

He warned that despite a recent ceasefire, the U.S. has continued to move troops into the region, with approximately 50,000 personnel now deployed. 

Higdon also pointed to a provision for automatic draft registration in December as a sign that the military is preparing for a long-term engagement.

"I wouldn’t be too hopeful of this coming to an end anytime soon," Higdon said, noting that the blockade of the critical oil route will likely prevent any near-term relief for gas prices.

In California

Political strife:

Closer to home, the California political landscape has been upended by a scandal involving East Bay Congressman Eric Swalwell. 

The Manhattan District Attorney’s office confirmed it is investigating allegations of sexual assault against the representative.

Higdon predicted that Swalwell will likely be forced to resign from Congress as labor unions, donors, and fellow politicians withdraw their endorsements. 

"Folks on the inside tend to get some inside knowledge and know what’s coming," Higdon said of the rapid exit of Swalwell's supporters.

Dig deeper:

The scandal creates a significant vacuum in the primary for California governor. 

While Swalwell was previously a leading contender, his likely departure may benefit other high-profile Democrats such as billionaire Tom Steyer or former Congresswoman Katie Porter. 

However, Higdon noted the race remains "wide open," as candidates struggle to connect with voters on a platform of affordability during a time of war.