California governor's race tightens as primary day approaches

California governors race tightens as primary day approaches

With Tuesdays primary election approaching, the race for California governor is coming into focus — and one candidates rise has surprised nearly everyone watching.

OAKLAND, Calif. - With Tuesday's primary election approaching, the race for California governor is coming into focus — and one candidate's rise has surprised nearly everyone watching.

That's according to Joe Garofoli, senior political writer and columnist with the San Francisco Chronicle, who broke down the latest polling and key races to watch with KTVU.

Who's in the lead?

By the numbers:

The latest Berkeley IGS poll of 5,000 likely voters from May 19-24, shows former Attorney General Xavier Becerra leading the field at 25%, with Republican Steve Hilton at 21% and billionaire activist Tom Steyer at 19%.

Just two months ago, Becerra was polling at 5% and Democratic Party leaders were quietly urging lower-performing candidates to reconsider their campaigns. Former Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa, who is now polling at 1%, was among those who suggested Becerra consider dropping out.

"This would be the greatest comeback since Lazarus," Garofoli said.

He attributed Becerra's turnaround primarily to the exit of Congressman Eric Swalwell from the race, saying Swalwell's voters and Becerra share many of the same moderate positions. 

Becerra, Garofoli said, has leaned into a steady, reassuring image on the campaign trail.

"He's sort of portraying himself as Tío Becerra — Uncle Becerra, the kindly uncle," Garofoli said. "This is not a guy who's going to go to Sacramento and turn over the tables."

The other side:

Steyer, meanwhile, has climbed from 15% earlier this month to 19% in the latest poll, powered by $213 million of his own money and a string of endorsements from major progressive organizations in California. 

His support for single-payer health care and his pledge to not take corporate PAC money have resonated with the left, even as some progressives have historically been skeptical of billionaire candidates.

"Steyer's a different type of billionaire than the tech billionaires who they traditionally oppose," Garofoli said, noting that Steyer's platform focuses on protecting and creating working-class jobs rather than advancing technologies that could eliminate them.

Ballots are slow coming in

Dig deeper:

Despite the competitive field, Democrats have been slow to return their mail-in ballots, with return rates sitting around 12%. 

Garofoli said the hesitation reflects a broader dissatisfaction with the candidate pool.

"I can't tell you how many people told me, 'I don't know who to vote for, none of these people appeal to me,'" he said. "Nobody in this field really has that outsized big personality, or at least has demonstrated it at this point."

Local perspective:

In San Francisco, former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi added a new variable to the congressional race to fill her seat, endorsing Supervisor Connie Chan over front-runner State Senator Scott Wiener. Garofoli said the endorsement was expected, though its timing surprised him.

Pelosi's recent endorsement record in San Francisco has been uneven — she backed Dean Preston, who lost, and Joel Engardio, who was recalled — but Garofoli said this one may carry more weight.

"It is for her seat. She has tapped Chan on the shoulder and said, this is the person I want," he said.

Chan is currently in a tight race with Saikat Chakrabarti, a former tech engineer and one-time aide to Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, according to Chronicle polling.

The Pelosi endorsement, Garofoli said, could be enough to push Chan into the top two alongside Wiener.