June jobs report surprisingly good

Nationwide job report shows unexpected gains

A report released Thursday showed a gain of 147,000 payroll jobs, which lowered the nations unemployment rate from 4.2% to 4.1%.

SAN FRANCISCO - The nationwide job report for June released Thursday surprised a lot of experts and delighted the financial markets. 

For months, many pundits and forecasters predicted that the labor market was treading treacherous waters. But employment lawyer and former EDD Director Michael Bernick told KTVU that the job market is doing quite well despite federal budget cuts, the just-passed "big beautiful bill" and tariff uncertainties. 

"It was a real surprise and a surprisingly strong job report," Bernick said. "And again, it really defied expectations and defied the main job narrative of the past…three or four months which has been the nation, California on the verge of having a job collapse."

By the numbers:

Thursday's report noted a gain of 147,000 payroll jobs, which lowered the nation's unemployment rate from 4.2% to 4.1%.

Though tariffs have raised concerns of slowing trade and mass layoffs in port, warehousing, and transportation jobs, Bernick said today's tariffs "show nothing of that."

However, Bernick added that the unease surrounding tariffs has caused some employers to take proactive measures.

"Employers are freezing hiring decisions given the uncertainty," Bernick said. "If we get some tariff deals and some certainty on tariffs, that the collapse that everyone has been talking about in terms of the job market, nationwide and California won't occur."

While state and local and state governments gained 70,000 jobs nationwide, the Federal Government only reported 7,000 jobs lost. 

"Now, part of that is that government employees who may have taken the buyout are not shown as unemployed because they're still receiving income," Bernick said.

Healthcare, home care service and social assistance jobs also grew. 

"These are jobs that are, of course, largely government-funded," Bernick said.

The other side:

But big cuts in Medicaid and their impact on Medicare could quickly change things. Also, the private sector is no longer booming. 

"The private sector industries – that is, information technology, business and professional services, finance, construction and manufacturing – those show modest or no gain for the month," Bernick said.

What happens to the job market in July largely depends on tariff deals and the true impact of the "big beautiful bill.