L.A. fires are an omen that could redefine firefighting preparations
LOS ANGELES - In less than 24 hours, the Hughes Fire, consumed over 10,000 acres. Though the blaze is getting the headlines, the Palisades and Eaton fires are still burning and dangerous.
"From the Palisades to our multiple wildland wildfires that have occurred in the city and around the city within our region, it's been extremely challenging," said Chief Kristin Crowley of the L.A. City Fire Department.
Just a week before the month is over, California has already racked up almost 51,000 acres burned compared to just 4 acres by this time last year and just 457 acres over the five-year average.
What they're saying:
Rain expected in L.A. this weekend has raised concerns about mud flows, but the National Weather Service says the rains will not be significant enough to create dramatic flows capable of extinguishing the fires.
Dr. Daniel Swain, a UCLA climate scientist, added that coming rain could be meaningless.
"I think this rainy period will very likely be a period of greatly reduced fire risk. Once we get back to the end of the first week in February though, unless it rains again, we're going to be at the mercy of the winds, because all it will take is one Santa Ana event to evaporate all of this water and we'll be right back to where we started," Swain said.
Also, terrain drying Santa Ana winds will not abate until at least the end of February, and the winds often continue into the spring.
Syracuse University Paleoclimatologist Professor Tripti Bhattacharya studies the history of climate changes and told KTVU the extreme weather has created a very risky environment.
"The Santa Ana winds which bring this low humidity, dry, warm air to the coast definitely help exacerbate the fire risk. That's why there's a warning for fire risk going forward the next couple weeks," Bhattacharya said.
She also echoed Swain's sentiments that the insufficient rains and expectation of continued arid weather do not portend favorable conditions for the scorched region.
"Because we have a weak La Nina brewing in the Pacific Ocean, that tends to mean dryer conditions for Southern California. We can hope for rain, but the outlook suggests dry conditions in general," Bhattacharya said.
Adam Rose, a renowned risk analysis expert for disasters ranging from terrorist attacks to weather and wildfires, warned conditions could further deteriorate in the future, which would create an even greater risk of fire danger.
"If you look ahead, while this was unprecedented, this is not necessarily the worst of these types of events that will happen in the future. There are likely to be even worse conditions," Rose said.