Study finds decade-long decline in U.S. student test scores predating pandemic

OAKLAND, Calif. - A major new study examining student test scores across the country is raising fresh concerns about the state of American education — and researchers say the problems began long before COVID-19 disrupted classrooms.

The study

By the numbers:

Researchers from Stanford, Harvard and Dartmouth analyzed test scores from 5,000 school districts across 38 states, covering students in third through eighth grade. 

Their findings, compiled in what they call the Education Scorecard, show that since 2015, 83% of districts saw a decline in reading scores, while 70% percent lost ground in math over the same 10-year period. 

The declines cut across wealthy and lower-income districts alike, and were consistent across racial and geographic lines.

What they're saying:

Michelle Quinn, executive editor of the education non-profit news site EdSource.org, said the scope of the findings is significant — particularly because the slide began well before the pandemic.

"This begins 2013 to 2015," Quinn said. "The pandemic on top of this long erosion was sort of like a mudslide."

Researchers have pointed to two possible explanations for the early decline. 

One is the rise of social media, which coincided with a drop in recreational reading among young people. 

The other is the phaseout of No Child Left Behind, the federal policy that penalized school districts whose students failed to meet certain academic standards.

The other side

Dig deeper:

Despite the troubling overall trend, Quinn noted that the most recent data offers some reason for cautious optimism. 

Schools have shown improvement for the fourth consecutive year, with modest gains in reading and more significant gains in math.

Bay Area school districts were not immune to the trend. 

Local perspective:

Oakland Unified, West Contra Costa Unified and others showed declines in both reading and math. 

Even higher-income districts such as Palo Alto Unified and Piedmont Unified recorded drops in both subjects.

Quinn highlighted two California districts that bucked the trend: Modesto City Schools and Compton Unified. 

Both focused heavily on regular student data assessment, worked aggressively to reduce chronic absenteeism and provided increased support and coaching for teachers — particularly in math.

"It's really interesting how you can really target a problem," Quinn said.

Big picture view:

California is also moving toward what educators call the science of learning, a return to phonics-based reading instruction that the state has now adopted as a standard. 

Quinn said other states that have made similar shifts have not always seen dramatic results, suggesting that targeted strategies and sustained effort matter as much as curriculum changes.

Quinn also raised concern about the potential loss of federal COVID relief funding that helped lower-income districts make gains in recent years.

"Now that money is going away," she said. "What do you do as a state to make sure to backfill that?"

EdSource's coverage of the Education Scorecard includes reporting by Betty Marquez-Rosales. More information is available here.

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