Redistricting battles and primary fights reshape political landscape ahead of midterms
Redistricting battles and primary fights reshape political landscape ahead of midterms
Court-ordered redistricting and high-profile primary races are reshuffling the political landscape across the country, with potential consequences for both parties heading into the midterm elections.
OAKLAND, Calif. - Court-ordered redistricting and high-profile primary races are reshuffling the political landscape across the country, with potential consequences for both parties heading into the midterm elections.
Democrats suffer blows
The backstory:
Recent legal setbacks have put Democrats on defense.
The Virginia Supreme Court struck down a congressional map that Democrats had drawn in their favor, despite voter approval of the plan.
Days later, the U.S. Supreme Court ruled that congressional districts in several southern states were unconstitutional and ordered them redrawn — a decision that could allow Republicans to redraw maps in Louisiana, Alabama and other states.
Political analysts say the changes could result in Republicans gaining up to 17 House seats, while Democrats might flip only six.
What they're saying:
Nolan Higdon, a political history lecturer at UC Santa Cruz, said the redistricting push will make things more difficult for Democrats but may not be a decisive blow.
"A lot of this redistricting is attempting to cut into any lead Democrats may have in the general," Higdon said. "But this could be something that backfires on Republicans."
Higdon explained that by shifting Republican voters from heavily GOP districts into more competitive ones, the party risks weakening its strongholds.
He also noted that the new maps are based on voting patterns from 2024, which he described as an unusually unpredictable election year.
On the Senate side, Republican Sen. Bill Cassidy of Louisiana — a frequent critic of President Trump who voted to convict him during his first impeachment trial — lost his primary to a Trump-endorsed challenger.
Higdon said the result was not surprising, despite Trump's low national approval ratings.
"The Republican Party really is MAGA, and that shows up in these primaries," Higdon said.
Trump taking risks
The other side:
He added that Trump's willingness to target members of his own party carries risks.
Cassidy and others who have clashed with the president will remain in office until January 2027, and could influence key votes in the interim.
Higdon pointed to a recent Senate vote on the War Powers Act related to Iran, which Trump survived by a single vote.
"Trump is kind of playing with fire by going after some folks in his own party," Higdon said.
California politics
Local perspective:
In California, the governor's race remains unsettled with three weeks to go.
The most recent polls show Attorney General Xavier Becerra leading a crowded field, but with only 3% of mail-in ballots cast, the race is far from decided.
Higdon said the contest has been wide open since the start, and grew more unpredictable after Rep. Eric Swalwell exited the race.
A new Emerson College poll released May 13, showed Democrat Xavier Becerra leading the pack with 19%, Republican Steve Hilton and Democrat Tom Steyer each received 17% support.
Higdon noted a significant share of voters remain undecided.
"It could be the case that two Democrats walk away from this race," Higdon said, referring to the top-two primary system.
Higdon said the lack of a clear frontrunner reflects broader uncertainty within the Democratic Party following its losses in the 2024 election.
"Nobody's walking away with a large chunk of the vote," he said. "They're still trying to identify where they are and who they are."
The Source: Interview with Nolan Higdon, a political history lecturer at UC Santa Cruz