Thanksgiving meal costs show mixed bag due to retail deals and supply issues

Last-minute Thanksgiving shopping underway

The overall cost of a basket of 11 Thanksgiving staples is up 4.1% from last year, with side dishes and canned goods seeing the steepest hikes.

PLEASANT HILL, Calif. - The cost of a typical Thanksgiving meal is showing a mixed pattern this year, with turkey prices being kept low by retail promotions despite sharp increases in wholesale costs, while many side dishes are more expensive due to tariffs and weather issues.

The turkey price paradox

What we know:

While the U.S. Department of Agriculture predicted wholesale turkey prices would rise 44% this year due to a shrinking population, many retail stores are working to soften the blow for shoppers.

According to Datasembly, a market research company that surveys weekly prices at 150,000 U.S. stores, there was a 2% decline in the retail price of a 10-lb. turkey as of November 17.

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By contrast, frozen 8–16-lb. turkey hens were averaging $1.77 per pound in the second week of November, an 81% increase from the same period last year.

The main culprit for the high wholesale prices is avian viruses, but increased consumer demand for turkey as a cheaper alternative to other meats (like beef, which was up 14% in September) is also a factor.

Professor David Ortega of Michigan State University noted, "We’re seeing some promotions being implemented in an effort to draw customers into the store."

Overall meal cost and differing estimates

By the numbers:

The total cost of a Thanksgiving meal basket varies depending on the research source:

American Farm Bureau Federation

• Meal Description: Thanksgiving dinner for 10
• Total Cost: $55.16
• Change From Last Year: 5% less

Datasembly

• Meal Description: Basket of 11 staples (10-lb. turkey, potatoes, stuffing, canned goods)
• Total Cost: $58.81
• Change From Last Year: 4.1% increase

Wells Fargo Agri-Food Institute

• Meal Description: Meal for 10 using store-branded products
• Total Cost: $80
• Change From Last Year: 2-3% lower

Tariffs and weather impact on sides

What we know:

While turkey is a bargain, many non-perishables and side dishes are seeing higher prices.

President Donald Trump's tariffs on imported steel and aluminum are increasing the cost of canned goods. 

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Farok Contractor, a professor at Rutgers Business School, stated customers may be paying 10 cents to 40 cents more per can when companies pass on the tariff costs.

Jellied cranberry sauce was up 38% from last year in Datasembly’s survey, a surge attributed to both tariffs and poor harvest due to drought conditions in Massachusetts.

On the flip side, canned pumpkin pie mix cost 5% less than last year, which was partly attributed to dry weather in Illinois helping pumpkins avoid common diseases.

What you can do:

Shoppers were encouraged to clip coupons and look for savings on store apps. 

One grocery store employee mentioned receiving a discount on their groceries, suggesting that seasonal employment might be a way for shoppers to save next year.