The latest computer models suggest the jet stream is shifting, and the latest atmospheric river will take the bulk of the precipitation into the Central Coast and Southern California. However, we are not out of the woods.
The northern edge of this storm will bring moderate rain and wind to the Bay Area beginning Monday overnight into Tuesday and Wednesday.
The heaviest rain will be Tuesday morning and afternoon, with winds increasing during the afternoon. There's also a chance of a thunderstorm containing small hail.
The Central Coast will receive the greatest impacts from this system, although even there, the rain totals and wind gusts are not expected to be as strong as the systems from earlier this month. The latest forecast update has rainfall totals from Tuesday to Wednesday for:
- Santa Lucia Mountains with 2 to 3 inches of rain
- Soggy Santa Cruz Mountains with 1.5 to 2 inches of rain
- Salinas Valley and Monterey Bay with 0.75 to 1 inch of rain.
The Bay Area should expect around .50 to 1 inch of rain in the valleys, coastal regions and around the Bay, with amounts up to or exceeding 1 inch in the higher elevations.
Wind gusts will also be major on the Central Coast, and a Wind Advisory will be in place Tuesday for the Santa Lucias, the interior mountains of Monterey and San Benito Counties, and the southern Salinas Valley, where wind gusts are expected to peak at 40- 50 mph, with the highest peaks receiving gusts up to 55-60 mph.
Even the Central Coast valleys and coastlines, as far north as Santa Cruz and Gilroy, are predicted to receive gusts to 30 mph. The San Francisco Bay Area is expected to receive wind gusts up to 20-30 mph in the valleys and coast, with the higher elevations reaching 30+ mph gusts.
For now, there are currently no advisories, watches or warnings for the Bay Area.
With our saturated soil, down trees and power outages should be expected alongside excessive runoff and ponding on roadways.
There is currently a Winter Storm Advisory in Tahoe, and a Winter Storm Watch is expected Tuesday from 5 a.m. through Wednesday 11 a.m.
Between 1-3 feet of snow may be at elevations above 7,000 feet.
The UC Berkeley Central Sierra Snow Lab has totaled this season's snowfall as 670 inches as of Sunday morning. We are only 1 inch away from this winter season being the second-snowiest winter on record. The 1982-83 season currently holds the record.
The San Joaquin River is expected to exceed the "danger stage" Sunday night at 29.5 feet.
This storm is not as powerful as last week's. Spring arrives Monday at 2:24 p.m.